| Sep 08 – 02:00 |
EU |
ECB Governing Council Member Weber speaks at the Handelsblatt Jahrestagung |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 08 – 07:00 |
JP |
September Report |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 08 – 08:00 |
DE |
Current Account (nsa)The German Current Account acts as a gauge for how Germany’s economy interacts with the rest of the world. Current account is one of the three components (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account) that make up a country’s Balance of Payments, the detailed accounting of all international interactions. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts, deals mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a routine, non-investment basis.
The Current Account tracks the trade balance (exports and imports for goods and services), income payments (such as interest, dividends and salaries) and unilateral transfers (aid, taxes, and one-way.pngts). A positive value (current account surplus) records that the flow of capital from these components into Germany exceeds the capital leaving the country. A negative value (current account deficit) means that there is a net capital outflow from these sources. Since the German economy is by far the largest in the EU, German Current Account has significant weight on the Euro. Persistent Current Account surpluses may lead to a natural appreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect Euros coming into the country (just as underlying deficit act as depreciating weight).
There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. The report is not very timely, released monthly about two weeks after the reporting period. In addition, many of the components that lead to the final Current Account, such as production and trade figures, are known well in advance. Lastly, since the report reflect data for a specific reporting month, any significant developments in the Current Account should plausibly have been already felt during that month and not during the release of data. But due to the significance of German Current Account in tracking foreign exchange developments, the report has a history of moving markets upon release.
The headline number is the Current Account balance and the percentage change in the Current Account from the previous month. |
Jul |
EUR bn |
 |
9 |
11.5 |
12.7 |
|
| Sep 08 – 08:00 |
DE |
Trade BalanceThe difference between the value of exports and imports in Germany. Trade Balance is one of the biggest components of Germany ’s Balance of Payment. As Germany is Europe’s largest economy and given Germany’s export oriented economy, trade data can give critical insight into pressures on the value of the Euro.
In order to gauge the effect of German Trade Balance on the Euro, German trade is separated into intra-Euro-zone trades and extra-Euro-zone trades. Intra-trades between Germany and Euro-zone member countries have no affect on the overall valuation of Euro. Extra-trades between Germany and other countries outside of Euro-zone do impact the overall Euro-zone trade balance. Given Germany’s large share of Euro-zone exports, the figure tends to move the market upon release.
Trade surpluses reflect funds coming into Germany in exchange for goods and services. Such currency inflows may lead to a natural appreciation of a Euro, unless countered by similar capital outflows. At a bare minimum, surpluses will boost up the value of the currency. |
Jul |
EUR bn |
 |
13.5 |
13 |
14.2 |
|
| Sep 08 – 08:30 |
FR |
BoF Business Sentiment |
Aug |
Index |
 |
101 |
101 |
101 |
|
| Sep 08 – 08:45 |
FR |
Trade BalanceThe French Current Account is the sum of the trade balance on goods and services, net income payments, and net current transfers. The trade balance on goods and services is the value of exports minus the value of imports. Net income payments is the amount of income generated for French nationals from foreign assets, like stocks and bonds, minus the amount paid to foreign nationals who own French assets. Lastly, transfer payments represent unilateral payments to and from the country, such as foreign aid donations and foreign worker salaries being sent home. Current account is one of the three components (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account) that make up a country’s Balance of Payments.
The flow of goods and services (trade balance) usually makes up most of the Current Account. Hence, a trade surplus is likely to contribute to a Current Account surplus while a trade deficit will likely cause a Current Account deficit. Generally the French current account is a useful measure of international trade flows that directly affect the value of Euro. A French current account surplus means that more Euros are flowing into France and this puts upward pressure on the value of the Euro. On the contrary a current account deficit reflects Euros leaking out of France; this can exert downward pressure on value of the Euro. |
Jul |
EUR bn |
 |
-4.18 |
-4.1 |
-3.8 |
|
| Sep 08 – 08:45 |
FR |
Central Govt. Balance |
Jul |
EUR bn |
 |
-93.1 |
-90.2 |
-61.7 |
|
| Sep 08 – 09:00 |
ES |
Industrial production (wda) |
Jul |
% y/y |
 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
|
| Sep 08 – 09:00 |
GB |
Halifax House Price IndexChange in the price of homes financed by Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS). It’s a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. |
Aug |
% 3m y/y |
 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.9 |
|
| Sep 08 – 09:00 |
GB |
Halifax House Price IndexChange in the price of homes financed by Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS). It’s a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
0.2 |
-0.5 |
0.7 |
|
| Sep 08 – 09:30 |
SE |
GDP (sa) (Final) |
Q2 |
% q/q |
 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
|
| Sep 08 – 09:30 |
SE |
GDP (wda) (Final) |
Q2 |
% y/y |
 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
|
| Sep 08 – 09:30 |
NL |
Industrial Production |
Jul |
% y/y |
 |
6.6 |
6.4 |
7.8 |
|
| Sep 08 – 15:00 |
CA |
BoC announce key policy interest rate |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 08 – 15:00 |
BE |
GDP (Final) |
Q2 |
% q/q |
 |
0.9 |
|
0.7 |
|
| Sep 08 – 15:00 |
BE |
GDP (Final) |
Q2 |
% y/y |
 |
2.4 |
|
2.2 |
|
| Sep 08 – 18:00 |
LU |
Prime Minister Juncker, ECB Council Member Mersch and European Investment Bank President Maystadt speak at the Economic and Monetary Union |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 08 – 20:00 |
US |
Fed release Beige Book |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 08 – 20:30 |
US |
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Kocherlakota gives speech on “Inside the FOMC” at a business leader’s luncheon |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 09 – 02:00 |
GB |
BoE MPC interest rate announcement |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 09 – 02:00 |
WLD |
OECD Chief Economist Schmidt-Hebbel presents an assessment of the economic situation. |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 09 – 05:00 |
AU |
RBA Assistant Governor Debelle gives a speech |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 09 – 08:00 |
DE |
CPI (Final) |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 09 – 08:00 |
DE |
CPI (Final) |
Aug |
% y/y |
 |
|
1 |
1 |
|
| Sep 09 – 09:30 |
NL |
CPI |
Aug |
% y/y |
 |
|
1.7 |
1.6 |
|
| Sep 09 – 09:30 |
NL |
CPI |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.3 |
-0.3 |
|
| Sep 09 – 09:30 |
NL |
Industrial Production |
Jul |
% m/m |
 |
-0.1 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
|
| Sep 09 – 10:00 |
EU |
ECB release Monthly Bulletin |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 09 – 14:30 |
US |
Initial ClaimsThe number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes. |
04-Sep |
k |
 |
|
470 |
472 |
|
| Sep 09 – 14:30 |
US |
Trade BalanceThe US Trade Balance refers to the difference between exports of goods and services out of the US, and imports to America. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the US’s Balance of Payment, which gives valuable insight and heavy pressure on the value of the dollar.
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the US experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect dollars leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation of a dollar, unless countered by comparable capital inflows (US Net Foreign Security Purchases, or TICs data reports on such capital flows). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of US Trade Balance. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure’s components are also typically well anticipated. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that month and not during the release of data. However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the more important reports out of the US. |
Jul |
$ bn |
 |
|
-47 |
-49.9 |
|
| Sep 09 – 14:30 |
CA |
House Price IndexA component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures changes in prices for new homes. Higher housing prices suggest stronger consumer demand and growth in the housing market. At the same time, higher housing prices that accompany economic expansion often lead to inflationary pressures. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.
Note: The New Housing Price Index takes into account the quality and features of the new homes sold. For example, if selling prices for new homes are unchanged, but the features and quality of housing have increased (e.g. added swimming pool and better construction materials), then the price for new homes is considered to have fallen. |
Jul |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
| Sep 09 – 14:30 |
CA |
Merchandise tradeThe difference between imports and exports of goods. Merchandise Trade differentiates itself from Trade Balance because it does not record intangibles like services, only reporting on physical goods. Because exports of tangibles like oil, gold and manufacturing contribute to a large part of Canada ’s GDP, trade data can give critical insight into developments in the economy and into foreign exchange rates.
Negative International Merchandise Trade (deficit) indicates that imports of goods are greater than exports. When exports are greater than imports, Canada experiences a trade surplus. Trade surpluses indicate that funds are coming into Canada in exchange for exported goods. Because such exported goods are usually purchased with Canadian dollars, trade surpluses usually reflect currency flowing into Canada, such currency inflows may lead to a natural appreciation of a the Canadian dollar, unless countered by similar capital outflows (Canadian International Securities Transactions tracks such capital flows). At a bare minimum, surpluses will buoy the value of the currency.
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Canadian Merchandise Trade on markets. The report is not very timely, released about three months after the reporting quarter. Developments in many of the components that comprise the figure are also usually well anticipated. Lastly, since the report reflect data for a specific reporting quarter, any significant changes in the Merchandise Trade should plausibly have been already felt during that quarter and not during the release of data. But because of the overall significance of Trade on Foreign Exchange Rates, the figure has a history of being one of the more important reports out of Canada . |
Jul |
CA $ bn |
 |
|
-0.8 |
-1.1 |
|
| Sep 09 – 15:15 |
SE |
Deputy Governor Svensson gives speech on the latest interest rate decision and Monetary Policy update in Stockholm |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 09 – 16:00 |
EU |
ECB Governing Council Member Weber speaks at a Household Finance conference in Cleveland |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 10 – 01:50 |
JP |
CGPI |
Aug |
% y/y |
 |
|
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
|
| Sep 10 – 02:00 |
JP |
BoJ release minutes from prior (9-10th August) MPC Meeting |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 10 – 02:00 |
WLD |
Market Holiday- Eid-Ul-Fitr (End of Ramadan) in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines and Singapore |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 10 – 02:00 |
CA |
BoC Governor Carney, former Federal Reserve Chairman Vocker and IMF representative Zhu attend the Economic Round Table |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 10 – 02:00 |
EU |
ECB Executive Board Member Stark participates in a discussion in Germany |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 10 – 07:00 |
JP |
Consumer ConfidenceConsumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Japanese economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of Japanese consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Japanese economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.
A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment. |
Aug |
index |
 |
|
43.6 |
43.3 |
|
| Sep 10 – 08:45 |
FR |
Manufacturing Production |
Jul |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.7 |
-1.3 |
|
| Sep 10 – 08:45 |
FR |
Manufacturing Production |
Jul |
% y/y |
 |
|
4.4 |
7.1 |
|
| Sep 10 – 09:00 |
ES |
CPI (Final) |
Aug |
% y/y |
 |
|
1.8 |
1.9 |
|
| Sep 10 – 09:00 |
ES |
HICP (Final) |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.3 |
-0.4 |
|
| Sep 10 – 09:00 |
ES |
HICP (Final) |
Aug |
% y/y |
 |
|
1.8 |
1.8 |
|
| Sep 10 – 09:00 |
ES |
CPI (Final) |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.3 |
-0.4 |
|
| Sep 10 – 09:30 |
SE |
Industrial Orders |
Jul |
% y/y |
 |
|
|
15.5 |
|
| Sep 10 – 09:30 |
SE |
Industrial Orders |
Jul |
% m/m |
 |
|
1.5 |
-2.5 |
|
| Sep 10 – 09:30 |
DK |
HICP |
Aug |
% y/y |
 |
|
2 |
2.1 |
|
| Sep 10 – 09:30 |
DK |
CPI |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.2 |
|
|
| Sep 10 – 09:30 |
DK |
CPI |
Aug |
% y/y |
 |
|
2.1 |
2.3 |
|
| Sep 10 – 09:30 |
DK |
HICP |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.2 |
-0.1 |
|
| Sep 10 – 10:00 |
FI |
Finance Ministry publishes Economic Forecast |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 10 – 10:30 |
GB |
Output Prices Core (unadj)A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as “Factory Gate Price” because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.
There is also a Core Output PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.
The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Output) from the previous quarter and previous year. |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
| Sep 10 – 10:30 |
GB |
Input Prices (unadj)A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. Th e figure is also calculated as Core Input PPI, which excludes volatile inputs such as food and energy that may distort the data. As such, the core figure is a more appropriate measure of inflation.
The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Input) from the previous quarter and previous year |
Aug |
% y/y |
 |
|
8.9 |
10.8 |
|
| Sep 10 – 10:30 |
GB |
Output Prices (unadj)A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as “Factory Gate Price” because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.
There is also a Core Output PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.
The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Output) from the previous quarter and previous year. |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
| Sep 10 – 10:30 |
GB |
Output Prices (unadj)A monthly survey that measures the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. The figure is also known as “Factory Gate Price” because it usually matches the price of goods when they first leave the factory. Increased prices in manufacturing typically lead to higher retail prices for consumers. However, it is also likely that higher output prices are caused by manufacturers charging a higher premium due to higher demand for their goods. Consequently, market trends in consumption should be considered with Output PPI to avoid data misinterpretation.
There is also a Core Output PPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy. The Core PPI is generally a better measure of inflation because it excludes those items whose short-term price fluctuations can distort inflationary data.
The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Output) from the previous quarter and previous year. |
Aug |
% y/y |
 |
|
4.8 |
5 |
|
| Sep 10 – 10:30 |
GB |
Input Prices (unadj)A monthly survey that measures change in input prices as incurred by UK manufacturers. Input prices include the cost of materials used plus operation costs of running the business. The index can be used as a measure of inflation, given that higher input costs will likely be passed on from producers to consumers in the form of higher retail prices. Th e figure is also calculated as Core Input PPI, which excludes volatile inputs such as food and energy that may distort the data. As such, the core figure is a more appropriate measure of inflation.
The headline is the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (Input) from the previous quarter and previous year |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.1 |
-0.1 |
|
| Sep 10 – 11:00 |
IT |
Current Account |
Jul |
EUR mn |
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 10 – 16:00 |
US |
Wholesale InventoriesThe stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or importers, and retailers. Wholesalers sell directly to retailers, who strive to act in accordance (ideally) with consumer demand. Consequently, high Wholesale Inventories indicate that unsold goods are piling up, suggesting that retailers are facing lagging consumer demand and unwilling to purchase goods. Conversely, declining Wholesale Inventories suggest retailers are buying more goods to meet strong or rising demand. Because Wholesale Inventories reflect the demand retailers have for their manufacturers’ wares, the report offers an early indication of the potential strength of consumer spending.
Wholesale Inventories are reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month. |
Jul |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.4 |
0.1 |
|
| Sep 13 – 02:00 |
WLD |
Annual World Alternative Investment Summit is held at Niagra Falls in Canada (13th-15th Sep) |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 13 – 08:45 |
FR |
Current AccountThe French Current Account is the sum of the trade balance on goods and services, net income payments, and net current transfers. The trade balance on goods and services is the value of exports minus the value of imports. Net income payments is the amount of income generated for French nationals from foreign assets, like stocks and bonds, minus the amount paid to foreign nationals who own French assets. Lastly, transfer payments represent unilateral payments to and from the country, such as foreign aid donations and foreign worker salaries being sent home. Current account is one of the three components (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account) that make up a country’s Balance of Payments.
The flow of goods and services (trade balance) usually makes up most of the Current Account. Hence, a trade surplus is likely to contribute to a Current Account surplus while a trade deficit will likely cause a Current Account deficit. Generally the French current account is a useful measure of international trade flows that directly affect the value of Euro. A French current account surplus means that more Euros are flowing into France and this puts upward pressure on the value of the Euro. On the contrary a current account deficit reflects Euros leaking out of France; this can exert downward pressure on value of the Euro.
The headline number is the Current Account balance and the percentage change in the Current Account from the previous month. |
Jul |
EUR bn |
 |
|
|
-2.7 |
|
| Sep 13 – 09:30 |
NL |
Trade balance |
Jul |
EUR bn |
 |
|
|
2.7 |
|
| Sep 13 – 18:30 |
US |
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Lockhart moderates a Q&A session with British Ambassador to the US Sheinwald at a World Affairs Council Meeting |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 13 – 20:00 |
US |
Budget |
Aug |
$ bn |
 |
|
-118 |
-165 |
|
| Sep 14 – 01:01 |
GB |
Nationwide Consumer ConfidenceSurvey that queries economic participants on their current and future expectations for the UK economy. Rising consumer confidence generally precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. The figure is released at the start of each month, making Nationwide Consumer Confidence a timely measure of consumer sentiment now and in the immediate future.
The headline figure is the index value for the Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index, where the May 2004 figure is 100. |
Aug |
Index |
 |
|
|
56 |
|
| Sep 14 – 02:30 |
AU |
Business Indicators (Profits, inventories) |
Q3 |
% q/q |
 |
|
|
-0.5 |
|
| Sep 14 – 06:30 |
JP |
Industrial Production (Final) |
Jul |
% m/m |
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 14 – 06:30 |
JP |
Industrial Production (Final) |
Jul |
% y/y |
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 14 – 06:30 |
JP |
Capacity UtilisationCapacity utilization measures the extent to which Japanese manufacturing companies make use of their installed productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy. High capacity utilization usually exerts inflationary pressures as scarce resources are in high demand. However, it may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants, that promote growth in the future.
As a technical note, capacity utilization is referred to as Operating Ratio by the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, and indexed to the year 2000 with a base value of 100. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous month or previous year. |
Jul |
% m/m |
 |
|
|
-2.1 |
|
| Sep 14 – 10:30 |
GB |
DCLG House Prices |
Aug |
% y/y |
 |
|
|
9.9 |
|
| Sep 14 – 14:30 |
US |
Retail SalesMonthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. Given that retail sales make up a hefty one third of such spending, the Advanced Retail Sales figure acts as a measure of consumer demand before GDP is released.
The figure has its limits, though. For instance, the timely release of the report comes at the cost of volatility in the figures and significant monthly revisions. It is not unusual for the figure to come out positive one month, only to be subsequently revised as negative. Retail Sales can also be volatile due to seasonality. Additionally, the report has been criticized for excluding service sector sales and failing to adjust for inflation. Despite these drawbacks, the figure still moves the market on release, mainly because of the importance of consumer spending to the US economy.
The Retail Sales figure is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars based on a sample of stores throughout the month – returns, taxes and finance charges are excluded. It appears in the headlines as the annualize percentage change from the previous month. |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.3 |
0.4 |
|
| Sep 14 – 14:30 |
US |
Retail Sales Ex AutosMonthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. Given that retail sales make up a hefty one third of such spending, the Advanced Retail Sales figure acts as a measure of consumer demand before GDP is released.
The figure has its limits, though. For instance, the timely release of the report comes at the cost of volatility in the figures and significant monthly revisions. It is not unusual for the figure to come out positive one month, only to be subsequently revised as negative. Retail Sales can also be volatile due to seasonality. Additionally, the report has been criticized for excluding service sector sales and failing to adjust for inflation. Despite these drawbacks, the figure still moves the market on release, mainly because of the importance of consumer spending to the US economy.
The Retail Sales figure is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars based on a sample of stores throughout the month – returns, taxes and finance charges are excluded. It appears in the headlines as the annualize percentage change from the previous month.
Retail Sales Ex Autos
The Retail Sales figure is also reported excluding automobile sales. Given their high cost, auto sales contribute significantly to retails sales, comprising nearly a quarter of the figure. As a result, changes in automobile sales can produce high fluctuations in the retails sales report. Vehicle sales are prone to seasonal changes, thereby easily distorting retail sales trends. To provide a more accurate picture of retail sales the auto component is removed and followed more closely. |
Aug |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
| Sep 14 – 14:30 |
CA |
Labour ProductivityThe average productivity level of Canadian workers. Labour Productivity is calculated by dividing the gross domestic product (GDP) by the number of hours worked, yielding output per hour, which is the key measure of productivity growth. The availability of better technology and higher levels of education among the workforce are factors commonly attributed to increased productivity. Growth in labour productivity is usually seen as a sign of a healthy economy because higher productivity allows higher output for a fixed population. Rising Labour Productivity can also offset inflationary pressures associated with economic growth and spending. Economic expansion attributed to increased Labour Productivity will not result in inflation, meaning that central banks will not need to increase interest rates during times of high growth.
The headline figure is the percentage change in output per hour. |
Q2 |
% q/q |
 |
|
0.7 |
0.8 |
|
| Sep 14 – 14:30 |
CA |
Motor Vehicle SalesChange in the number of new cars and trucks sold domestically. It’s a sign of consumer confidence – rising demand for expensive durable goods shows that consumers are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money. |
Jul |
% m/m |
 |
|
|
2.5 |
|
| Sep 14 – 16:00 |
US |
Business inventoriesUnsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Business Inventories are often able to show economic turning points. A significant decrease in inventories implies that the economy is on the verge of rapid growth because stockrooms for businesses are empty and need to be replenished, which triggers higher production overall.
Inventories are also useful when examined in conjunction with total business sales. Rising inventories paired with slackening business sales are indicative of troubled economic times. When business sales slow, retailers’ inventories increase and they are forced cut back on wholesale orders. Wholesalers, affected by the fear of swelling inventories, will slow or even shut down production in factories.
Recent technological advancements allow firms to manage inventories more efficiently, keeping inventory levels lower. Accordingly, declines in inventory stores are often indicative of productivity increases rather than changes in demand. But these logistical advances put particular emphasis on growing inventories. Increases in stocks of goods signal declining demand in America .
While the Business Inventories figure is released with the Advanced Retail Sales report, the Advanced Retail Sales report features a lag time of merely two weeks. The Business Inventories’ lag time is three times as long, making it an indicator that follows rather than leads the overall pace of the economy. Market participants tend to focus more on the Advanced Retail Sales figures.
The headline number is expressed as a percentage change from the previous month. |
Jul |
% m/m |
 |
|
0.5 |
0.3 |
|
| Sep 14 – 16:00 |
US |
IBD consumer optimismLevel of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers; above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. This is a survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level if economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies |
Sep |
index |
 |
|
|
43.6 |
|
| Sep 14 – 16:30 |
CA |
Capacity UtilisationMeasures the extent to which Canadian manufacturing companies make use of their productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity Utilization Rates act as an indicator of overall demand in the economy. High Capacity Utilization Rates reflect that resources are in high demand, and this exerts inflationary pressures. High Capacity Utilization Rates may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants and equipment that promote growth in the future. The headline figure is reported as the ratio of actual production to potential production.
Note: The data is gathered from the Capital and Repairs Expenditure survey. Unlike some of the other surveys done by Statistics Canada , this survey is not mandatory. |
Q2 |
% |
 |
|
|
|
|
| Sep 14 – 16:30 |
CA |
Capacity UtilisationMeasures the extent to which Canadian manufacturing companies make use of their productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity Utilization Rates act as an indicator of overall demand in the economy. High Capacity Utilization Rates reflect that resources are in high demand, and this exerts inflationary pressures. High Capacity Utilization Rates may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants and equipment that promote growth in the future. The headline figure is reported as the ratio of actual production to potential production.
Note: The data is gathered from the Capital and Repairs Expenditure survey. Unlike some of the other surveys done by Statistics Canada , this survey is not mandatory. |
Q2 |
% |
 |
|
|
74.2 |
|
| Sep 14 – 17:15 |
EU |
EU Economic and Monetary Commisioner Rehn gives closing speech at Eurofound Economic Conferece on Economic Growth |
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|